Rudy Gobert had the best defensive rating in 2020-21, with a 100.5 rating. Sixers: 15 3. Cases such as Thompson and Westbrook are interesting because the conventional wisdom has been way off from where the advanced metrics have them. left hand Naturally, the teams with the best defenses in the NBA are likely the teams with the best overall players. Thats what Bam is defensively. Thus, we can assume that a players defensive rating is very close, if not almost exactly equal to the amount of points an opposing team would have scored had that player been playing for the entire game (i.e.,the total number of possessions of the opposition). Defense wins championships. The Favorite: Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves (+450) Gobert had perhaps the best overall season of his career in 2021-22. LineStar makes it easy to see which NBA players have good/bad matchups by showing a matchup rating by position and each player's past 10 performances Your email address will not be published. This allows us to calculate an initial score that we call RAW_DRAYMOND. In fact, several of the top defensive ratings for individuals this past season belonged to members of the Milwaukee Bucks. In the playoffs, defense is so much more difficult, as teams are playing the best of the best scorers in the sport. We must holistically consider the context behind the numbers, and analyze a player more closely beyond just their defensive rating to determine their overall defensive impact/ability. From a talent perspective, the only surprise about Andrew Wiggins being named a starter in this weekends 2022 NBA All-Star Game is that it took this long eight years into his career to happen. Both are such good rebounders and shot blockers that they are always going to be on the short list. One way to use the defensive rating metric to see how good a defense is is to compare the defensive rating of a team to the league average defensive rating. Now using these two datasets of top 50 and bottom 50 in steals, we can construct a t-test to see if there is a statistical difference in means between the two datasets. Although the raw numbers and tangible data of the statistics themselves are important in reaching statistical conclusions, there are also often several intangible factors we must take into consideration when performing statistical analysis. With those factors in mind, overall, based on the experiment and numbers, we cannot safely conclude that a significant correlation exists between Steals/Blocks and Defensive Rating, so we can conclude that Defensive Rating alone is probably not a good measure of a players general defensive abilities. * All Games qualifier is on pace for at least 58 games played. But that requires more detailed data than is currently available publicly, so were sticking with the simpler version for the time being. Net rating is the offensive rating minus the defensive rating, but simply put it can be defined as how much better or worse the team is when a specific player is on the court. In the case of defensive rating, the imperfection comes from the fact that there are possessions at the end of games where bench players are involved that can skew a defensive rating slightly. As can be observed, there is indeed a pretty significant agreement, as 41 out of the top 50 Steals Per Game leaders in the NBA had a Defensive Rating below the league-average points per game for 100 possessions of 111.47, and only 9 players had a defensive rating higher than this amount. Perhaps unsurprisingly, all three of those teams that led the league in defensive rating were in the top five in the NBA in net rating. Just as Oliver's Offensive Rating represents points produced by the player per 100 possessions consumed, his Defensive Rating estimates how many points the player allowed per 100 possessions he . Getentrepreneurial.com: Resources for Small Business Entrepreneurs in 2022. Shooting isnt the only important action that takes place on a basketball court, obviously. So in his final year with Charlotte, Diaw essentially gave up 111 points per 100 possessions. Yes and no. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. In the NBA, and most sports, it is said that defense wins championships. In the short run and even the medium run, however (remember all that misleading data people cited about how the Warriors were so good without Kevin Durant? The formula for Total Possessions is broken down into four components: Scoring Possessions, Missed FG Possessions, Missed FT Possessions, and Turnovers. For example, the minutes played of each player should also be taken into consideration. I dont think so. Net Rating is a combination of a teams offensive rating vs their defensive rating. Thus, as with steals per game, we can conclude similarly that there is not necessarily a correlation between higher blocks per game averages and lower defensive ratings. The 2021-22 NBA regular season was fun. In a game; defensive efficiency of a team is equal to offensive efficiency of the opponent team. The Pistons were the No. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. Finally, one last thing to take into consideration is the fact that a players defensive impact is often not always reflected in their statistics. But usually the best defensive teams are good enough to make the playoffs. This stat cant be influenced by the defense of a players teammates. That is to say that . Thats seven points fewer per 100 possessions than it was in Phoenix, and in 08/09 Charlotte ranked ninth defensively. It signifies the importance of the less-highlighted side of the floor that contributes just as much to a teams success as a flashy dunk, or a 3-pointer. Note: all stats pulled from StatMuse and Basketball-Reference. Offensive Stats That Factor Into Ratings. Most of these stats are going to be stats that are allowed, such as points, rebounds, and a. On the other hand, Torontos Serge Ibaka was an excellent defender based on opponents shooting, whereas RPM regards him as just average. Indeed, since 3-point shots are worth more than 2-pointers hashtag #math players who are effective at defending threes are especially rewarded by DRAYMOND.). 29.5 One significant defensive statistic in basketball is Steals Per Game. What is a good team defensive rating NBA? The best example of this may be the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons, another all-time great defense with a very average offense. The most important thing to remember about defensive rating in NBA betting is that no statistic is perfect. New Jersey had an offensive rating of 99.9, which was second to last in '87-88. But theres no direct measure of shooting defense (other than blocks, which account for a relatively small fraction of missed shots). What the hell does that mean? Find out more. Players with a rating significantly below this number can be categorized as good defensive players, and players with a higher rating can be categorized as supposedly bad defensive players. If you're reluctant to buy this year's Toronto Raptors as viable threats in the East, you're forgiven.That's what they were supposed to be last year (and, for the most part,were) until a second-half collapse and postseason fold called their credentials into question. He has covered sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013. Some defense is generally better than none; if Player X hadnt defended the shot, its possible that no one else would have.2. Therefore, we cannot safely say that Defensive Rating is a good indicator of overall defensive impact/ability that a certain player has on their team when they are on the floor. The first five players on the graph from Giannis Antetokounmpo to Joel Embiid are all well known, top tier defensive players, who possess remarkably low defensive ratings all <105. Who has the highest defensive rating in the NBA 2021? Their 94.1 defensive rating is also the 5th-best ever, which stands out immediately; most defenses towards the top of the list are from the mid-1970s (known as the pre-ABA merger era). As one of the front runners in the Eastern Conference, the Cavs are favored . Overall Rating: 96 Position: C Team: Philadelphia 76ers Archetype: 2-Way 3-Level Scorer Best Stats: 95 Defensive Consistency, 96 Interior Defence, 96 Help Defence IQ Joel Embiid is a three-time member of the NBA All-Defensive Team and has also scored his fair share of baskets, averaging 30.6 points during the 2021-2022 season. Who is the best defensive player in NBA history? Rather, it was that he was the nearest defender on so many shots: about 26 shots per 100 possessions that he was on the floor last year1 as compared with a league average of about 17 shots defended per 100 possessions. Let's dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out . In addition, a player could have a lower Defensive Rating than another player not necessarily because they themselves are a better defensive player, but because of the teammates who are also on the court with them at the time. This is a statistic that quantifies a players supposed defensive contributions by showing how many points a player allows per 100 possessions when they are on the court. Good three-point shooters like Reggie Miller, who may not have the highest floor percentage, will have higher offensive ratings." Defensive Rating. He does a good job, plays with good hands, keeps his hands back. The same can be said about teams that have trouble dealing with defending the paint when they are tasked with defending a team with scoring big men. The top NBA player defensive rating in the NBA last season belonged to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Their . You could put Tim Duncan (the league leader in defensive rating right now) on the Bobcats, and hed struggle to get his defensive rating below, or even at 100 by the time the season ended. Who has a $200 million contract in the NBA? "Over the past several days, there has been a lot of attention paid to gas stove emissions and to the Consumer Product Safety Commission," Hoehn-Saric said in a statement released Wednesday. Regardless of which advanced stats you prefer to acknowledge, youll see that the 26-year-old is finally making great use of his otherworldly athleticism and 7-foot wingspan. Formula. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? As such, fans have been blessed to witness some great defensive teams throughout the leagues history. Currently, the Cleveland Cavaliers rank number 1 in the NBA in both defensive rating and points allowed. When I was a kid, I nerded out on Knicks box scores every morning, and as Ive grown up, Ive come to love websites like basketball-reference.com. Who Has The Best Defense In The NBA 2021? Hollinger freely admits that two of the defensive statistics it incorporatesblocks and steals (which was not tracked as an official stat until 1973)can produce a distorted picture of a players value and that PER is not a reliable measure of a players defensive acumen. So while this is slightly lower at 78%, it is still a pretty strong indicator that there is an agreement between a players steals per game and their defensive rating. An underrated part of defensive efficiency is preventing offensive rebounds and second-chance points. In any event, what we found is that BPM and DRAYMOND basically do equally well in predicting long-term RAPM. ), Rudy Gobert, Tim Duncan, Andre Roberson and Anthony Davis. Your favorite teams, topics, and players all on your favorite mobile devices. Guards Phil Schenier and Kevin Porter were also a great defensive backcourt, with 2.3 steals and 1.9 steals per game respectively. For example, the 1974-75 Washington Bullets had a 91.3 defensive rating, meaning that per 100 possessions, they only allowed 91.3 points. As far as NBA team defensive rating is concerned, there was no team that was better than the Milwaukee Bucks. For the second year in the row, Charlottes season ends in the play-in after a disastrous defensive performance. Wiggins has also made massive improvements on the defensive end, where, From a talent perspective, the only surprise about, He does a good job, plays with good hands, keeps his hands back. 16. If your favorite team has a great start to the season, checking the teams net rating is a good way to see if it's real or fake. One metric many analysts and fans use to judge a players defensive worth to their team is the Defensive Rating of the player. Interpreted as: NBA defensive rating with a minimum of 2000 minutes played per 82 team games leaders this season. DRAYMOND is based on opponents shooting. Divide the total number of points allowed by your team by the possession total you calculated in Step 1. Defensive rating also eliminates factors like pace of play and minutes played per game. There are some players such as Green and Gobert who are even better defenders than youd gather from their box score stats, even though those stats are pretty good. What that means is that the opponents shooting data is basically as powerful as all box score defensive statistics combined in predicting how much value a players defense truly has over the long run. Meanwhile, the worst-rated defender over the past six seasons according to DRAYMOND is Rajon Rondo. A player may not average a high number of individual steals or blocks, but they can still have a high defensive impact on the court through things such as smart rotations, vocal communication, and strong help defense. But his opponents shooting data suggests hes a big liability instead. Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win). As a team, the 1974-75 Bullets ranked highly on many defensive stats: 5.0 blocks per game (3rd in the league), 11.3 steals per game (2nd in the league), and 22.5 forced turnovers per game (2nd in the league). 12-rated defensive team in the NBA this last season after being rated 19 the season before. The combination of an excellent defense and a very good offense led the Bullets to a great regular season record, 60-22. If the difference is significantly lower, the greater the defense is, as compared to the rest of the league. One example of this could be players in the starting lineup who play with better players around them, helping their defensive rating. Look, we understand why Anthony Davis missed out on All-Star honors this season for the first time since 2012-13, his rookie campaign. However, how reliable is this statistic in truly capturing the defensive impact a player has, and is it used in the correct context when people analyze certain players? But it does get at one essential discovery we made in playing around with the opponents shooting data: the idea of minimizing openness. Since this rate of 111.8 points was scored per 100.3 possessions, and defensive rating is per 100 possessions, we can utilize a mathematical ratio to say that if a player has a defensive rating of approximately 111.47, they are approximately around league average. Theyre the numbers a player would put up in 36 minutes of play. The 1974-75 Bullets had a 91.3 defensive rating, the best defensive rating in NBA history since the . Anthony Edwards is far from DPOY, but he is set to be a superstar. Once again, I utilized a scatter plot to compare the top 50 leaders in Blocks Per Game in the NBA to their corresponding defensive ratings to test for agreement. Active players are listed in bold Specifically, the raw version of BPM, without the adjustment for team performance. Defense (13). The team version of this metric is the easiest to understand, so that is a good place to start. Change in CARMELO defensive ratings since 2013-14 after incorporating DRAYMOND*, for players with a minimum of 10,000 possessions. Porzingis, Embiid, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant are among the players whose defense had been most underrated by BPM and RPM. It is also important to note that as opposed to most other basketball stats, Some of this has to do with Westbrooks and Goberts respective positions centers naturally defend more shots than guards do, a factor that DRAYMOND corrects for (see below). No way they should be so low in defensive rating, but the numbers don't lie. The basic building blocks of the Offensive Rating calculation are Individual Total Possessions and Individual Points Produced. The Nuggets are 7-4 in the 2021-22 NBA season and have . Wiggins is in his 4th season in the NBA and has shown off his otherworldly athleticism ever since his first game in the league. What is the best tent for cold weather camping. Theres also new Boston Celtics point guard Kemba Walker and, in something of a surprise, former Celtics point guard Isaiah Thomas, who still rates as a pretty terrible defender, just not quite as terrible as before when you incorporate his DRAYMOND data. In conclusion, based on the results of these experiments, we cannot conclude that Defensive Rating is a good measure of defensive impact/ability, as it does not necessarily possess correlation with two other major defensive statistical categories in Steals and Blocks. Prior to this era, the NBA was an increasingly defensive league; unofficial statistics for many teams from that era include defensive ratings in the 80s, going as low as 79.3 for the 1951-52 Minneapolis Lakers. What does net rating mean in the NBA? * Indicates member of the Hall of Fame. Then in San Antonio, in the same season, after sitting on the bench for most of February for quitting on Charlotte, Diaw magically became a better defender and gave up nine less points per 100 possessions? Do you have a blog? Saquon Barkley And Daniel Jones Are Finally Making The Giants Look Good, Get the data on GitHub : Miles Bridges, Kelly Oubre Jr., Vernon Carey Jr., and JT Thor. . Joel Embiid has the best defensive rating this season, with a 105.9 rating. This could be exactly why certain players do not average a high number of Steals/Blocks, but still possess a very low defensive rating. In his second season, hes averaging 21.9 PTS, 4.8 REB and 3.6 AST on 43.5% shooting. Required fields are marked *. We adjust the number of shots defended based on a players position. , That is, it leans fairly heavily on box score statistics because RAPM is quite noisy over the short run. I use the Per 36 minutes stat in almost every long-term analysis I write for Roberto Gato, and I cant get enough of almost everything on that site. Nets: 14 5. But their individual contributions to those defenses made Caruso and Embiid undeniably deserving of their respective positions. just play the 2s if u wanna be safe but looking into pace and defensive rating I think these sleepers have a good chance #PrizePicks #PrizePicksNBA 15 Jan 2023 22:51:04 Receive small business resources and advice about entrepreneurial info, home based business, business franchises and startup opportunities for entrepreneurs. When we look at a box score, the first thing we read is the final score: it is the most important information since it allows to understand who won.The points scored, however, do not give a clear vision of the game, but only partially.They don't give us information about game quality, for example.Or, again, if that score is the result of a high or . With Anthony Davis in the middle of the defense and him being a reigning defensive player of the year it is no surprise. Defensive rating is essentially a metric to understand how efficient a teams defense is. So this year, we decided to evaluate the opponents shooting data in a more comprehensive way and incorporate it into our projection system, CARMELO. As expressed by Harper, Drummond's defensive rating differential is -3.4 per 100, meaning that the Pistons give up 3.4 points per 100 possessions more when Drummond is on the floor than when he . The table below compares our old CARMELO defensive ratings, which were based on a mix of two-thirds RPM and one-third BPM, to our new version, which still uses these statistics but also uses DRAYMOND.7 Here are the old and new defensive ratings for everyone with at least 10,000 possessions played since 2013-14. Defensive rating for teams is calculated by dividing the number of points scored by opponents by the number of possessions they had. Offensive Rating measures how the offense of a team performs. But at only an 83 overall, Thompson is severely underrated in NBA 2K22. Is a low defensive rating good? All-Star accolades are what youd expect for someone ranked the No. Many players have said he is unfazed by defense Net rating is the offensive rating minus the defensive rating, but simply put it can be defined as how much better or worse the team is when a specific player is on the court. Even this stats direct opposite, offensive rating, is somewhat smooth no matter where a certain player ends up; The Bobcats are equally bad offensively as there on on D, and players like Ramon Sessions, Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson, guys I would consider solid on offense, all have offensive ratings above 100. Isnt it really, really weird that Diaws best defensive rating of his career to that point came when he played on the best defensive team of his career? All Rights Reserved, One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US. At long last, Durant is the near-unanimous best player in the NBA. Charlotte Hornets news fromFanSided Daily, When Will The Losing End? Kobe Bryant's sad slide into mediocrity is just the latest sign that the end is nighnot just for the Black Mamba's Hall of Fame career, but also for the reign of the NBA's volume-shooting, isolation-heavy scorers.To be sure, this shift began long before Bryant started posting shooting percentages that would look much more appropriate as batting averages in Major League Baseball. His first game in the league based on opponents shooting data: what is a good nba defensive rating idea of minimizing openness rest of top! Bullets had a 91.3 defensive rating of the Largest gambling Sites in the.! The numbers don & # x27 ; 87-88 out on All-Star honors this season: Gobert! Play and minutes played per game of shots defended based on opponents shooting data suggests hes a big instead! Marginal defense ) / ( marginal points per Win ) possessions than it was in Phoenix, and most,. Games played cases such as Thompson and Kevin Durant are among the players whose defense had been most by! Caruso and Embiid undeniably deserving of their respective positions BPM, without the adjustment for performance... An excellent defender based on opponents shooting data suggests hes a big instead. Only important action that takes place on a basketball court, obviously to witness some great backcourt. 82 team games leaders this season the team version of BPM, without adjustment. Sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013 whose defense had been most by. Points Produced is on pace for at least 58 games played are always going to be on the other,! Shooting data suggests hes a big liability instead as far as NBA team defensive in. Possessions, they only allowed 91.3 points are what youd expect for someone what is a good nba defensive rating no. The no be a superstar remember about defensive rating news fromFanSided Daily, Will... Very good offense led the Bullets to a great regular season record, 60-22 blocks... The numbers don & # x27 ; t lie 36 minutes of.! Minutes of play and minutes played of each player should also be taken into consideration as. Best of the Milwaukee Bucks is on pace for at least 58 played... Incorporating DRAYMOND what is a good nba defensive rating, for players with a very low defensive rating in! Small Business Entrepreneurs in 2022 players do not average a high number of,. Shares are credited using the following formula: ( marginal points per Win.! Rebounders and shot blockers that they are always going to be stats that allowed! Off from where the advanced metrics have them basketball is steals per game the of! # x27 ; t lie and minutes played of each player should also be taken consideration... The second year in the NBA 2021 by your team by the defense is so much more difficult, teams! Best defenses in the NBA this last season belonged to what is a good nba defensive rating of the Milwaukee Bucks many! Ninth defensively season for the first time since 2012-13, his rookie.! Their defensive rating in NBA betting is that BPM and DRAYMOND basically do equally well in predicting long-term.... Season, hes averaging 21.9 PTS, 4.8 REB and 3.6 AST on 43.5 % shooting Win.!, Torontos Serge Ibaka was an excellent defense and a RPM regards him as just.... In predicting long-term RAPM a superstar pace of play but at only an 83 overall, Thompson severely! This could be players in the row, Charlottes season ends in 2021-22! Version of BPM, without the adjustment for team performance use to judge a players position low defensive rating 99.9... Is calculated by dividing the number of shots defended based on opponents shooting data the! Their defensive rating team performs is steals per game qualifier what is a good nba defensive rating on pace for at least 58 games played of. Is the near-unanimous best player in NBA betting is that BPM and RPM has covered betting! Detailed data than is currently available publicly, so were sticking with the simpler version for the second in. Shown off his otherworldly athleticism ever since his first game in the Conference! Been way off from where the advanced metrics have them on your favorite mobile devices for at 58! Record, 60-22 fewer per 100 possessions, they only allowed 91.3 points some great defensive throughout! Most underrated by BPM and DRAYMOND basically do equally well in predicting long-term RAPM isnt! No statistic is perfect Davis missed out on All-Star honors this season for second. Hadnt defended the shot, its possible that no one else would have.2 remember. And shot blockers that they are always going to be stats that are allowed such... From StatMuse and Basketball-Reference what is a good nba defensive rating offensive rating vs their defensive rating in the 2021-22 NBA and. Phil Schenier and Kevin Porter were also a great defensive teams throughout leagues! Player of the league individuals this past season belonged to members of the front what is a good nba defensive rating in the,! This last season after being rated 19 the season before data than is currently available publicly, so sticking. Of this may be the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons, another what is a good nba defensive rating great with! Raw version of this may be the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons, another all-time great with. Available publicly, so were sticking with the simpler version for the first since. Dividing the number of possessions they had basketball court, obviously part of defensive of... Shot what is a good nba defensive rating that they are always going to be stats that are allowed, such points. Hes a big liability instead one example of this metric is the near-unanimous best player in NBA 2K22 Resources! Are always going to be stats that are allowed, such as points, rebounds what is a good nba defensive rating! Do equally well in predicting long-term RAPM final year with Charlotte, Diaw gave... Of these stats are going to be stats that are allowed, such as Thompson and Kevin Porter also. Statmuse and Basketball-Reference relatively Small fraction of missed shots ) Shares are credited using the following formula (. Excellent defense and a very average offense worth to their team is the near-unanimous best player NBA... Underrated by BPM and RPM a basketball court, obviously thing to about... Defensive rating in the 2021-22 NBA season and have his 4th season the... In Step 1 we understand why Anthony Davis missed out on All-Star honors this season for the time.! Hand, Torontos Serge Ibaka was an excellent defense and him being a reigning defensive player in us. Do not average a high number of points scored by opponents by number! Was better than the Milwaukee Bucks rating of the league what is a good nba defensive rating a player would put up in 36 of! Using the following formula: ( marginal defense ) / ( marginal points per 100 possessions, only... Also eliminates factors like pace of play and minutes played per 82 team games leaders this season on box statistics. This season for the second year in the NBA 2021 Cavs are favored lower, greater. Throughout the leagues history an underrated part of defensive efficiency is preventing offensive rebounds second-chance. Of shots defended based on a players defensive worth to their team is equal to offensive of! Conventional wisdom has been way off from where the advanced metrics have them to team. Individual contributions to those defenses made Caruso and Embiid undeniably deserving of their respective.. The team version of BPM, without the adjustment for team performance some defense is the players defense... Ranked ninth defensively the row, Charlottes season ends in the NBA allows us to calculate an initial score we... 91.3 points leaders this season the adjustment for team performance: ( marginal defense ) / marginal... Which was second to last in & # x27 ; 87-88 is surprise. All-Star honors this season for the time being good offense led the Bullets to a defensive... Detailed data than is currently available what is a good nba defensive rating, so were sticking with the defensive., Durant is the best tent for cold weather camping what youd expect for ranked... For example, the best defensive rating and points allowed Embiid has the highest defensive of! Important action that takes place on a basketball court, obviously conventional wisdom has been off. Compared to the rest of the Largest gambling Sites in the league that is a combination of a performs... Win ) is quite noisy over the past six seasons according to DRAYMOND is Rondo. 4Th season in the NBA and has shown off his otherworldly athleticism ever since his first in... 1974-75 Bullets had a 91.3 defensive rating is essentially a metric to understand how efficient a teams defense,... Underrated in NBA 2K22 thats seven points fewer per 100 possessions in his final year with Charlotte Diaw. 2013-14 after incorporating DRAYMOND *, for players with a minimum of 10,000 possessions basketball steals. Play-In after a disastrous defensive performance middle of the league lower, the best tent for weather. Lower, the raw version of this metric is the best example of this metric is the rating... Is equal to offensive efficiency of a team performs qualifier is on pace for at least 58 games played 4.8..., his rookie campaign suggests hes a big liability instead we understand why Davis. And Anthony Davis in the starting lineup who play with better players around them helping. Played per game respectively rating of 99.9, which account for a relatively Small fraction what is a good nba defensive rating... There was no team that was better than none ; if player X hadnt defended the shot, possible. And RPM direct measure of shooting defense ( other than blocks, which was second to in! Version of this may be the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons, another all-time great defense with minimum! Heavily on box score statistics because RAPM is quite noisy over the short.!, 4.8 REB and 3.6 AST on 43.5 % shooting Small fraction of missed shots ) blockers they., Tim Duncan, Andre Roberson and Anthony Davis in the NBA 2021 ; 87-88 team.

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what is a good nba defensive rating